The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, in force since late November 2024, is under its most severe strain yet after a series of deadly strikes in southern Lebanon and a dangerous incident involving United Nations peacekeepers, prompting UN officials to warn that violations of the truce are now occurring almost daily.
The escalation has heightened concerns over civilian safety, the security of UN personnel and the future of the UN peacekeeping mission tasked with maintaining stability along the Lebanese-Israeli border.
Fatal Strikes in Southern Lebanon
Lebanon’s Ministry of Public Health said two people were killed in separate Israeli strikes over the past 48 hours.
In the village of Mansuri, one person was killed on Friday morning when an Israeli strike hit a vehicle, the ministry said. In Mayfadun, another person was killed late on Thursday. The Israeli military said the second strike targeted a Hezbollah operative allegedly attempting to re-establish infrastructure in the Zawtar al-Sharqiyah area.
On Jan. 15, Israeli air strikes were also reported in the Bekaa Valley, north of the Litani River, including in the village of Sohmor, after evacuation warnings were issued to residents. The attacks marked some of the northernmost Israeli operations since the ceasefire took effect.
Drone Incident Near UN Peacekeepers
In a serious escalation, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said its peacekeepers were endangered during a patrol near the village of Adaisseh.
According to a UNIFIL statement, troops inspecting a house suspected of containing an explosive device observed a drone hovering overhead. The drone later dropped a grenade around 30 metres from their position. No injuries were reported.
UNIFIL said it immediately requested a halt to fire from the Israeli army and warned the incident constituted a “serious violation” of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which underpins the ceasefire framework.
The mission said such actions endanger peacekeepers and civilians alike. The drone incident followed another report earlier this week in which an Israeli tank fired near UN troops — a development UNIFIL said was becoming “disturbingly common.”
Daily Violations Reported
UN officials say the ceasefire’s “cessation of hostilities” provision is being repeatedly breached.
Since November 2024, UNIFIL has recorded more than 10,000 Israeli air and ground violations, according to UN data. Israeli forces also continue to maintain positions at five border outposts inside Lebanese territory, despite the agreement requiring a full withdrawal.
UN officials warned that continued violations risk eroding the credibility of the ceasefire and increasing the danger of miscalculation along the border.
Uncertain Future for UNIFIL
The instability comes as UNIFIL approaches a critical transition. In August 2025, the UN Security Council voted to extend the mission’s mandate for a final time, through Dec. 31, 2026.
A one-year phased drawdown is set to follow, during which responsibility for security in southern Lebanon would be transferred fully to the Lebanese Armed Forces. Diplomats say the success of the handover depends on sustained calm — a condition now increasingly in doubt.
Fragile Calm Under Strain
More than a year after the ceasefire began, the Israel–Hezbollah front remains volatile. Rising fatalities, repeated military violations and direct threats to UN personnel have raised fears that the truce is holding by a thread.
In its latest warning, UNIFIL said continued breaches risk dragging the region back toward open confrontation — a scenario both sides had pledged to avoid.
