The strategy for Ukraine is quietly shifting in Europe to match the changing tone of the United States — from a promise of unyielding support to an effort to bring Kyiv to the bargaining table with a strong hand.
That new strategy will play out most clearly this week at the Munich Security Conference, one of the biggest gatherings of defense leaders in the world.
It’s a dramatic departure from the Biden era, when the meeting reinforced the U.S. and its allies had Ukraine’s back for, as former President Joe Biden often said, “as long as it takes.”
And while Europe still insists it will support the country three years into Russia’s invasion, the conversations this weekend could signal the direction of the embattled country’s future.
“How [Europeans] position themselves… to be at the table rather than being on the menu,” said Camille Grand, a former NATO assistant secretary general. “That’s the whole debate.”
European leaders — in a sign they’re adapting to President Donald Trump’s desire to end the war — are flaunting hard power credentials to show they would play a leading role in peace talks.
French President Emmanuel Macron in January told a group of his ambassadors, “if we decide to be weak and defeatist, there’s little chance of being respected by President Trump’s United States of America.” U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, days after Trump took office, signaled he was open to sending British peacekeeping forces to Ukraine in the event of a ceasefire. Other European allies also are saying they’re open to such a plan.
Trump’s campaign vow to end the war in a day — and his administration’s promise to do so his first 100 days in office — sets up high stakes for the conference. Vice President JD Vance is expected to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy there, according to two people familiar with the planning.
But the former Ohio senator has been skeptical of U.S. support for Kyiv and did not join a bipartisan Senate delegation meeting with Zelenskyy last year at the conference. He instead used its final day to insist the U.S. focus on the Indo-Pacific.
“We can’t support Ukraine and the Middle East and contingencies in East Asia,” Vance told the conference in February 2024. “It just doesn’t make any sense.”
Vice President Kamala Harris, on the other hand, went to Bavaria to meet with Zelenskyy three times, including just days before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
“We will, for the moment, take the lead if the Americans don’t,” said one European military official. The individual, like others, was granted anonymity to speak about private deliberations.
