A new World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) report warns that global temperatures are likely to continue rising, with an 80 per cent chance that at least one year before 2029 will be hottest.
The planet is predicted to warm between 1.2°C and 1.9°C above pre-industrial levels over the next five years.
In 2024, global temperatures were already 1.34°C to 1.41°C above pre-industrial levels, and the 20-year average warming (2015–2034) is expected to reach 1.44°C.
The report estimates an 86 per cent chance that temperatures will exceed 1.5°C in at least one of the next five years, with a 1 per cent chance of surpassing 2°C.
There is also a 70 per cent chance that the five-year average will cross the 1.5°C threshold.
The WMO emphasised that the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target refers to long-term averages over 20 years, so this limit has not been breached yet.
However, near-term temperature spikes are alarming signs of an accelerating climate crisis.
Regionally, the forecast highlights wetter-than-average conditions in the African Sahel, northern Europe, and South Asia, while the Amazon region may face ongoing drought.
The Arctic is warming at a much faster rate, with average temperatures over the next five winters expected to be 2.4°C warmer than the 1991–2020 average, more than three times the global average increase.
Sea ice is predicted to continue shrinking, especially in the Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk Seas, contributing to rising sea levels and disrupted global weather patterns.
As the world enters this critical window, the UN agency calls for urgent climate action to prevent even more dangerous warming and to keep long-term temperature increases below the 1.5°C limit.
